jan korbel

Zatím nasadily tablety brutální tempo:

In 2011, PCs outsold tablets almost six to one, estimates Canalys, a technology research company. But that is still a significant change from 2010, the iPad’s first year on the market, when PCs outsold tablets 20 to one, according to Canalys.

— Zdroj As New iPad Debut Nears, Some See Decline of PCs, NYTimes.com, vypíchl Daring Fireball

Z roku na rok z 20:1 na 6:1 (PC:tablety). A to zatím úřaduje více-méně jen iPad. Počkejte, až se na tak-nějak-konkurenční úroveň dostane Android a Windows 8.

Horace Dediu udělal konzervativní odhad a vyšlo mu, že tablety předstihnou v prodejích PC už někdy na podzim 2013.

Na konkrétním čtvrtletí moc nesejde, ale zkuste se zamyslet, co to znamená.

V meziročním srovnání posledních čtvrtletí roků 2010 a 2011 trh PC klesl o 5,9 %, pokud ale od něj odečteme Mac, který rostl o 20,7 %, pak se klasická „Wintel” PC propadají o 8,5 %.

Ding-dong, the Wintel witch is starting to slowly wither away.
— Daring Fireball

Horace Dediu na Asymco publikoval pěkný historický pohled na vývoj ročních prodejů PC, do kterého zakomponoval i neskutečně rychle nastupující mobilní zařízení.

The “entrants” into personal computing, the iPad, iPhone and Android, have a combined volume that is higher than the PCs sold in the same period (358 million estimated iOS+Android vs. 336 million PCs excluding Macs in 2011.) The growth rate and the scale itself combine to make the entrants impossible to ignore.

— Zdroj Asymco

Proměna klasického PC na to, co Steve Jobs označil za „náklaďák” půjde rychle. A co bude po „mobile”? Tipnul bych „wearable”. Pak (a během toho) už je začneme zabudovávat do sebe.

Via Daring Fireball

Horace Dediu z Asymco udělal rozhovor s Brunem Ferrarim (mimochodem, jestlipak zná tohohle Bruna Ferrariho).

Q: In your analyses, you mention tablets as part of a new era, the “Post PC era”. Why do you think the PCs will be replaced by tablets?

This is not quite correct. Post PC does not mean the end of the microcomputer. The way to think about it is this: The stone age did not end because we stopped using stones. Same with the iron age and the industrial era. The era of jet travel did not end automobile or even ship travel (though that changed to recreation rather than transportation for passengers.) Each phase of technology does not fully replace its predecessor. It offers a new set of solutions and perhaps a slightly different way of solving old problems. We’ll still have PCs but we will use a new type of computer, an even more personal computer. The world still uses the microcomputer’s technological ancestors.

In terms of what new jobs will we hire the tablets to solve, they will vary greatly from what we used PCs for. Just like we used microcomputers for different things than we used time-shared minicomputers and mainframe computers. I expect social interaction, media consumption and entertainment will move from a PC to a tablet. New uses will emerge from the vast experiment that is the app phenomenon.

…

Q: Apple has more than 90% of tablet market worldwide. Do you think Apple will be the leader of technology market in the next few years?

The challenge for Apple is that they cannot serve the whole world. They can only grow so fast. On one hand we have their inability to meet demand and on the other we have alternative products which can. Market leadership may not be sustainable just because the market is so big and no single company can supply it. I do believe that Apple is not sitting on its hands however. Their culture promotes pushing forward.

— A new era is only a new state of mind, Asymco